|
Assumptions Used
|
Mortality – Turnover (resale)
due to death
|
|
Withdrawal – Turnover (resale)
due to reasons other than mortality
|
|
1994 Group Annuity
Mortality Table rates:
|
|
Rates asumed:
|
|
Age
|
Male
|
Female
|
|
55
|
0.44%
|
0.23%
|
|
60
|
0.80%
|
0.44%
|
|
65
|
1.45%
|
0.86%
|
|
70
|
2.37%
|
1.37%
|
|
75
|
3.72%
|
2.27%
|
|
80
|
6.21%
|
3.94%
|
|
85
|
9.72%
|
6.77%
|
|
90
|
15.29%
|
11.63%
|
|
95
|
23.36%
|
18.62%
|
|
100
|
31.72%
|
27.64%
|
|
|
|
|
|
Age
|
Rate
|
|
70 to 79
|
5%
|
|
80 to 84
|
5%
|
|
80 to 89
|
5%
|
|
90 to 94
|
10%
|
|
95 to 99
|
65%
|
|
100 and over
|
100%
|
|
|
|
New Resident Profile
50% probability – age 70 female
12.5% probability – age 70 male
37.5% probability – age 70 male and age 70 female
Manor Resale
Manor assumed to be resold in the year when the youngest resident in the manor dies
The number of vacant manors are assumed to remain at the current level
Factors not utilized in study due to unpredictability
Real estate trends
Housing market fluctuations
Competition from other senior residential communities
Unexpected dramatic improvement in life expectancy
|
Results of Study
20-Year Projection
|
Year
|
Number
of Manors
projected
to be
Resold
|
Total
Number
of Manors
|
Projected
Resale %
|
Year |
Number
of Manors
projected
to be
Resold
|
Number
of Manors
Resold
|
Projected
Resale %
|
| 2007 |
648
|
6,678
|
7.9%
|
2017
|
563
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2008 |
669
|
6,678
|
10.0%
|
2018 |
562
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2009 |
634
|
6,678
|
9.5%
|
2019 |
560
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2010 |
606
|
6,678
|
9.1%
|
2020 |
557
|
6,678
|
8.3%
|
| 2011 |
602
|
6,678
|
9.0%
|
2021 |
556
|
6,678
|
8.3%
|
| 2012 |
592
|
6,678
|
8.9%
|
2022 |
557
|
6,678
|
8.3%
|
| 2013 |
589
|
6,678
|
8.8%
|
2023 |
558
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2014 |
580
|
6,678
|
8.7%
|
2024 |
560
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2015 |
575
|
6,678
|
8.6%
|
2025 |
562
|
6,678
|
8.4%
|
| 2016 |
572
|
6,678
|
8.6%
|
2026 |
565
|
6,678
|
8.5%
|
|
|
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